000 FONT11 KNHC 051441 PWSAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1500 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 15 31 30 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 8 31 36 34 TROPICAL STORM 5 5 22 54 45 30 33 HURRICANE 95 95 77 38 9 3 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 38 50 28 7 3 3 HUR CAT 2 19 40 20 7 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 4 15 5 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X 2 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X 1 X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 90KT 80KT 65KT 40KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 27 57(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MAYAGUANA 50 1 56(57) 1(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MAYAGUANA 64 X 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GRAND TURK 34 16 57(73) 1(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) GRAND TURK 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) GRAND TURK 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GONAIVES 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN