000 FONT11 KNHC 050239 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 0300 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 3 13 23 23 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 3 13 28 33 31 TROPICAL STORM 60 41 41 62 48 39 39 HURRICANE 40 57 56 22 10 6 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 36 47 43 18 8 5 5 HUR CAT 2 3 7 9 2 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 2 1 X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 70KT 55KT 40KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 3 34(37) 23(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MAYAGUANA 50 X 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MAYAGUANA 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND TURK 34 3 39(42) 29(71) X(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) GRAND TURK 50 X 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRAND TURK 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 22 10(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 3 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 88 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) LES CAYES 50 18 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LES CAYES 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 36 20(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GONAIVES 34 43 35(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GONAIVES 50 1 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GONAIVES 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 7 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 4 24(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART