000 FONT11 KNHC 312031 PWSAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 5 9 11 TROP DEPRESSION 1 5 9 10 9 7 5 TROPICAL STORM 69 75 67 55 49 29 26 HURRICANE 31 20 23 33 36 55 57 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 29 17 19 25 25 31 28 HUR CAT 2 2 2 2 6 7 15 15 HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 2 3 8 12 HUR CAT 4 1 X X 1 1 2 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 80KT 90KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 5(25) 4(29) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 9(21) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 8(18) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 9(24) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 9(34) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 8(24) 7(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GONAIVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 8(26) GONAIVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) GONAIVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 9(28) 7(35) 4(39) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 8(22) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 6(23) 5(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PONCE 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 3(15) 5(20) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN JUAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) 5(16) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) SAINT CROIX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 5(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 4( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 4( 8) BARBUDA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) ANTIGUA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI