000 FONT11 KNHC 300847 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 0900 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 4 8 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 1 4 3 5 TROPICAL STORM 25 13 13 13 25 17 25 HURRICANE 75 86 87 86 70 76 62 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 68 58 44 37 34 29 29 HUR CAT 2 5 20 28 27 19 23 18 HUR CAT 3 1 7 12 17 13 18 13 HUR CAT 4 1 1 3 4 3 6 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 85KT 90KT 90KT 100KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 9(24) 5(29) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 2(20) 3(23) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 7(38) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) 5(40) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GONAIVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 6(31) GONAIVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) GONAIVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 10(51) 3(54) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) 3(24) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 4(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 6(37) 3(40) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PONCE 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 4(29) 2(31) 1(32) PONCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) SAINT CROIX 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 5(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 3 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) GUADELOUPE 34 6 12(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 34 4 49(53) 10(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) AVES 50 X 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 38 16(54) X(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DOMINICA 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 74 5(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MARTINIQUE 50 12 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARTINIQUE 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT LUCIA 50 67 7(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) SAINT LUCIA 64 24 8(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SAINT VINCENT 34 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SAINT VINCENT 50 52 7(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT VINCENT 64 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BARBADOS 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 12 6(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRENADA 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT OF SPAIN 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN