000 FONT11 KNHC 282052 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 2100 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 9 6 9 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 56 47 33 29 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 40 42 55 54 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 6 9 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 6 7 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X 10(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X 18(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MIAMI FL 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 2 19(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH