000 FONT11 KNHC 281457 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 1500 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 4 8 12 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 44 31 32 29 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 53 60 54 51 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 4 6 9 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 5 7 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 23(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH