000 FONT11 KNHC 200841 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 5 18 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 2 2 4 13 32 NA TROPICAL STORM 45 50 38 51 56 43 NA HURRICANE 55 48 61 44 27 8 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 51 42 47 33 20 7 NA HUR CAT 2 4 6 9 7 5 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 4 4 2 X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 35KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 35(35) 49(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 45(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 56(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN