000 FONT11 KNHC 120231 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 0300 UTC SUN SEP 12 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X X TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 1 TROPICAL STORM 8 12 7 5 5 6 12 HURRICANE 92 88 93 94 94 94 87 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 76 57 33 22 19 19 27 HUR CAT 2 13 22 35 30 24 21 24 HUR CAT 3 2 7 20 30 32 33 23 HUR CAT 4 X 1 4 11 15 17 11 HUR CAT 5 X X 1 2 4 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 110KT 115KT 115KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN