000 FONT11 KNHC 112038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IGOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 2100 UTC SAT SEP 11 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X X TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 1 TROPICAL STORM 20 12 7 5 3 6 12 HURRICANE 80 88 93 95 96 94 87 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 72 56 33 22 15 19 28 HUR CAT 2 6 23 35 30 20 22 24 HUR CAT 3 1 8 21 30 36 32 23 HUR CAT 4 1 1 4 11 21 17 11 HUR CAT 5 X X 1 2 5 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 115KT 115KT 115KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE