000 FONT11 KNHC 010239 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 14 43 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 59 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 80 26 11 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 19 X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 18 X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORT O CONNOR 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PESCA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PESCA MX 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LA PESCA MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 15 X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TUXPAN MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH