000 FONT11 KNHC 301447 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 33 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 20 47 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 2 62 19 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 98 16 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 54 10 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 35 4 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 8 2 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 1 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 45KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 7 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 270N 960W 34 23 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 64 11(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 61 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 250N 960W 64 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PESCO MX 34 70 15(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) LA PESCO MX 50 6 17(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LA PESCO MX 64 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 21 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) TUXPAN MX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA