000 FONT11 KNHC 300231 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 26 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 9 42 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 11 33 69 30 NA NA NA HURRICANE 89 65 20 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 75 47 16 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 12 12 3 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 2 5 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 80KT 55KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 6 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT O CONNOR 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 5 9(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 270N 960W 34 10 14(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 24 39(63) 5(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 2 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 83 8(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 250N 960W 50 24 20(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 250N 960W 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCO MX 34 27 51(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) LA PESCO MX 50 2 31(33) 12(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LA PESCO MX 64 X 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPICO MX 34 9 17(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPICO MX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH