000 FONT11 KNHC 271433 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 2 2 2 6 12 37 TROP DEPRESSION 43 17 9 6 9 5 27 TROPICAL STORM 53 74 66 47 36 45 22 HURRICANE 1 8 24 45 49 37 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 6 20 32 31 27 9 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 9 11 8 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 6 3 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 65KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) 3(26) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 15(34) 5(39) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 13(50) 3(53) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 2(22) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 18(42) 5(47) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 21(28) 13(41) 4(45) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 7(32) 4(36) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 2(20) 2(22) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN