000 FONT11 KNHC 261445 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 12 20 20 17 21 41 TROP DEPRESSION 5 53 43 22 11 12 21 TROPICAL STORM 89 33 34 49 45 35 24 HURRICANE 6 2 3 9 27 32 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 1 2 7 20 22 8 HUR CAT 2 X 1 X 2 5 7 4 HUR CAT 3 1 X X X 2 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 30KT 40KT 55KT 65KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 10(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) 8(42) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 10(29) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 4(20) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) BELIZE 34 35 13(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BELIZE 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) $$ FORECASTER AVILA