000 FONT11 KNHC 100837 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 10 19 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 36 45 38 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 61 42 37 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 4 6 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 5 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 7( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 34 2 6( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 34 5 10(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 8(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 11 13(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 6 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN