000 FONT11 KNHC 100252 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 12 27 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 20 50 42 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 72 35 26 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 8 3 5 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 7 3 4 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 4( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ST MARKS FL 34 4 4( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 8 5(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 5 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 18 5(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 4 6(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 20 10(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 50 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 64 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN