000 FONT11 KNHC 091443 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 15 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 12 26 31 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 77 61 43 NA NA NA HURRICANE 13 11 8 11 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 10 7 9 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 50KT 40KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 4( 9) 10(19) 14(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 5 4( 9) 8(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 8 7(15) 9(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 6(14) 5(19) 12(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 12 12(24) 13(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 15(18) 14(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 29 38(67) 7(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 70 5(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 26 46(72) 5(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) MOBILE AL 50 X 15(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 32 33(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GULFPORT MS 50 1 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 56 11(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BURAS LA 50 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 33 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 280N 890W 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 15 10(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN