000 FONT11 KNHC 050233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 14 22 32 32 35 TROP DEPRESSION 2 24 34 22 24 19 16 TROPICAL STORM 82 66 44 42 38 39 35 HURRICANE 17 7 7 15 6 10 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 15 6 6 12 5 8 11 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 X 2 2 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 35KT 40KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 8 16(24) 7(31) 2(33) 2(35) X(35) 1(36) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BLUEFIELDS 34 9 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BLUEFIELDS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH