000 FONT11 KNHC 031436 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 15 17 28 35 NA TROP DEPRESSION 42 42 46 41 36 35 NA TROPICAL STORM 56 51 37 38 32 27 NA HURRICANE X 1 2 4 4 3 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 4 3 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PONCE 34 1 16(17) 8(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) PONCE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 2 26(28) 8(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JUAN 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 16 32(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 20 29(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) SAINT CROIX 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 64 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN