000 FONT11 KNHC 020246 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 6 10 13 TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 5 11 18 22 22 TROPICAL STORM 81 59 57 59 55 51 46 HURRICANE 17 39 37 29 22 18 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 16 34 31 23 17 15 15 HUR CAT 2 1 4 4 4 4 2 2 HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PONCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 1(20) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 9(23) 3(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 7(19) 2(21) 1(22) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 4( 5) 15(20) 11(31) 6(37) 1(38) X(38) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 1 12(13) 17(30) 5(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) BARBUDA 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10) DOMINICA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA