000 FONT11 KNHC 230835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0900 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 8 11 17 31 45 59 TROP DEPRESSION 35 41 27 33 28 28 22 TROPICAL STORM 63 49 57 44 35 24 16 HURRICANE 2 2 5 6 6 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 5 5 2 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 70 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 1(73) APALACHICOLA 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 47 4(51) 1(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) PANAMA CITY FL 50 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 19(21) 8(29) 2(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 6 11(17) 4(21) 1(22) 2(24) 2(26) 1(27) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X 8( 8) 16(24) 3(27) 3(30) 2(32) 1(33) MOBILE AL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31) 2(33) 3(36) X(36) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 3(21) 6(27) X(27) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 5(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 5(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 4(25) 4(29) X(29) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 5(21) 5(26) 1(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 6(22) 1(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN