000 FONT11 KNHC 221439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 18 28 38 48 60 TROP DEPRESSION 26 43 44 39 28 27 22 TROPICAL STORM 72 48 35 31 30 23 17 HURRICANE 2 2 3 3 4 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 48 5(53) X(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 30(35) 3(38) 1(39) 1(40) 1(41) X(41) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 8 32(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) 1(46) X(46) ST MARKS FL 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 1 19(20) 9(29) 1(30) 1(31) 1(32) 1(33) APALACHICOLA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) 1(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 12(12) 13(25) 3(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 4(21) 2(23) 1(24) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) 2(17) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 2(19) 2(21) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 2(19) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 2(13) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 2(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA