000 FONT11 KNHC 191444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 8 12 17 28 41 52 TROP DEPRESSION 9 42 26 26 27 20 18 TROPICAL STORM 88 48 58 50 37 31 23 HURRICANE 3 2 5 8 8 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 1 4 6 7 6 5 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 X X X 1 X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 2(20) 1(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 2(26) 1(27) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 8(27) 3(30) 1(31) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 10 10(20) 12(32) 3(35) 4(39) 1(40) 1(41) DAYTONA BEACH 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 27 7(34) 4(38) 2(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) ORLANDO FL 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) ORLANDO FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 64 5(69) 2(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) 1(74) COCOA BEACH FL 50 7 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 86 X(86) X(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 7 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 14 X(14) 2(16) 1(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) FT MYERS FL 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 4 2( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 2(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 2(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 6 1( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA