000 FONT11 KNHC 190852 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 16 20 29 42 53 TROP DEPRESSION 9 31 43 32 28 22 19 TROPICAL STORM 89 59 38 43 36 30 22 HURRICANE 3 6 3 5 6 6 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 3 4 5 5 5 HUR CAT 2 X 1 X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 35KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 2(20) 1(21) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 4(25) 1(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 16(19) 7(26) 4(30) 4(34) 2(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 11 19(30) 3(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39) ORLANDO FL 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 23 27(50) 3(53) 2(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 47 13(60) 1(61) 1(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) FT PIERCE FL 50 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 47 3(50) X(50) 2(52) 2(54) X(54) 1(55) W PALM BEACH 50 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARCO ISLAND 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARCO ISLAND 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 47 1(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) FT MYERS FL 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) VENICE FL 34 10 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) VENICE FL 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) 3(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 6 6(12) 1(13) 2(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ANDROS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN