000 FONT11 KNHC 181438 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 7 19 36 49 TROP DEPRESSION 2 11 9 17 18 22 22 TROPICAL STORM 87 58 61 49 41 27 17 HURRICANE 11 30 27 27 23 15 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 9 26 22 20 16 9 7 HUR CAT 2 1 3 3 6 5 4 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 2 2 2 2 2 HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 4(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 4(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 2(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21) 4(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 6(29) 3(32) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 1(19) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 16(28) 5(33) 2(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 14(27) 14(41) 3(44) 1(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 15(45) 8(53) 2(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 2 13(15) 29(44) 11(55) 5(60) 1(61) 1(62) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 12(14) 28(42) 10(52) 4(56) 2(58) X(58) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 19(22) 21(43) 7(50) 2(52) 2(54) X(54) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 8 24(32) 13(45) 3(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) W PALM BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 32 22(54) 5(59) 1(60) 1(61) 1(62) X(62) MIAMI FL 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 86 5(91) 1(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) MARATHON FL 50 45 6(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MARATHON FL 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 67 10(77) 2(79) X(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) KEY WEST FL 50 33 12(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) KEY WEST FL 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MARCO ISLAND 34 27 44(71) 5(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) MARCO ISLAND 50 4 33(37) 5(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) MARCO ISLAND 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 10 45(55) 12(67) 2(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) FT MYERS FL 50 1 25(26) 10(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) FT MYERS FL 64 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 3 33(36) 18(54) 3(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) VENICE FL 50 X 13(13) 16(29) 2(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) VENICE FL 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) TAMPA FL 34 1 17(18) 25(43) 6(49) 4(53) 1(54) 1(55) TAMPA FL 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 11(32) 8(40) 1(41) 1(42) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 1(21) 1(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 9(23) 2(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 1(15) 1(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 6(10) 9(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) ANDROS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN