000 FONT11 KNHC 170246 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 3 5 12 21 38 TROP DEPRESSION 14 18 9 14 14 18 22 TROPICAL STORM 83 68 69 52 37 34 21 HURRICANE 3 12 19 29 37 26 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 10 16 22 25 17 11 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 8 6 4 HUR CAT 3 1 X 1 2 4 3 3 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 5(24) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 4(32) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 11(34) 3(37) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 10(39) 2(41) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 8(36) 2(38) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 20(30) 7(37) 1(38) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 17(35) 4(39) 1(40) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 16(30) 13(43) 4(47) X(47) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 20(48) 11(59) 2(61) 1(62) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 20(48) 10(58) 2(60) 1(61) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) 19(49) 4(53) 1(54) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) 1(19) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 21(44) 5(49) 2(51) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) X(16) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 23(38) 7(45) 2(47) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) 1(19) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 10(42) 2(44) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 12(36) 2(38) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 2(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 2(27) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 3(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 3(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 4(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 12(24) 4(28) 2(30) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 1(20) 1(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) HAVANA 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 14(44) 5(49) 2(51) X(51) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 8(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 30(31) 27(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 21 33(54) 2(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) CAMAGUEY 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA