000 FONT11 KNHC 310832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 8( 9) 12(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 11 25(36) 18(54) 4(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 49 16(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ANDROS 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 229N 787W 34 47 13(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 12 229N 787W 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 12 229N 787W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 239N 787W 34 40 23(63) 4(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 24 239N 787W 50 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 24 239N 787W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 256N 778W 34 5 21(26) 23(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 36 256N 778W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 36 256N 778W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 280N 757W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) 48 280N 757W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 280N 757W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 350N 690W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 72 350N 690W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 72 350N 690W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 440N 615W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 96 440N 615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 96 440N 615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 120 540N 530W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 120 540N 530W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 120 540N 530W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 45 45 50 60 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN