000 FONT11 KNHC 291444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 4(26) 1(27) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) 11(42) 2(44) 1(45) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 13(28) 9(37) 2(39) 1(40) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 19(21) 24(45) 5(50) 5(55) 2(57) 1(58) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 26(29) 21(50) 6(56) 3(59) X(59) 1(60) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 37 20(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63) 1(64) X(64) MAYAGUANA 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 8 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 212N 737W 34 75 7(82) 1(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 12 212N 737W 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 12 212N 737W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 224N 744W 34 29 34(63) 6(69) 1(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) 24 224N 744W 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 24 224N 744W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 36 234N 754W 34 3 28(31) 21(52) 4(56) 5(61) 1(62) 1(63) 36 234N 754W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) 1(19) 36 234N 754W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 243N 767W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 11(40) 8(48) 2(50) 1(51) 48 243N 767W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) 48 243N 767W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 260N 765W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) 10(41) 4(45) 1(46) 72 260N 765W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) 72 260N 765W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 96 280N 750W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 6(26) 2(28) 96 280N 750W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 96 280N 750W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 300N 725W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 120 300N 725W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 120 300N 725W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 45 40 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB