000 FONT11 KNHC 290858 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 2(20) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 15(29) 6(35) X(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 12(30) 4(34) X(34) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 15(37) 10(47) 3(50) 1(51) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) 12(45) 2(47) 1(48) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 15(15) 15(30) 5(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39) MAYAGUANA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 194N 729W 34 22 7(29) 2(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) 12 194N 729W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 194N 729W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 211N 740W 34 1 24(25) 13(38) 4(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) 24 211N 740W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 24 211N 740W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 36 222N 750W 34 X 9( 9) 28(37) 7(44) 5(49) 1(50) 1(51) 36 222N 750W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) 36 222N 750W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 230N 758W 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 13(38) 8(46) 3(49) X(49) 48 230N 758W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) 48 230N 758W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 260N 760W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 19(33) 8(41) 1(42) 72 260N 760W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 72 260N 760W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 96 290N 740W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 5(29) 96 290N 740W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 96 290N 740W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 120 320N 700W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 120 320N 700W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 120 320N 700W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 40 50 55 55 50 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN