000 FONT11 KNHC 290237 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0300 UTC MON OCT 29 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 5(28) 1(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 12(28) 4(32) 1(33) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 16(34) 11(45) 3(48) 1(49) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 1(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 13(35) 4(39) 2(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 4(24) 4(28) 2(30) 1(31) MAYAGUANA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 5(24) 1(25) 1(26) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 36(38) 14(52) 3(55) 2(57) X(57) 1(58) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 12(12) 11(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) LES CAYES 34 34 12(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) LES CAYES 50 8 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 76 4(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 183N 732W 34 76 6(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 12 183N 732W 50 22 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 12 183N 732W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 197N 745W 34 7 49(56) 7(63) 2(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) 24 197N 745W 50 X 23(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 24 197N 745W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 36 210N 757W 34 1 15(16) 30(46) 5(51) 3(54) 1(55) 1(56) 36 210N 757W 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) 36 210N 757W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 224N 761W 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 12(43) 6(49) 2(51) X(51) 48 224N 761W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) 48 224N 761W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 72 250N 760W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 16(31) 6(37) 2(39) 72 250N 760W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) 72 250N 760W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 280N 745W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) 96 280N 745W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 96 280N 745W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 120 310N 720W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 120 310N 720W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 310N 720W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 60 55 55 55 50 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH