000 FONT11 KNHC 280231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 5(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 6(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 5(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 6(19) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 5(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 10(23) 5(28) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 5(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 6(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 5(26) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 3(25) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 11(31) 4(35) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 7(35) 2(37) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 3(24) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 8(25) 6(31) 2(33) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 4(23) 6(29) 1(30) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 1 20(21) 11(32) 2(34) 1(35) 2(37) 1(38) LES CAYES 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) 2(16) CAPE BEATA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 166N 726W 34 18 10(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 1(31) 12 166N 726W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 166N 726W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 177N 742W 34 1 23(24) 11(35) 2(37) 1(38) 2(40) 1(41) 24 177N 742W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 177N 742W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 188N 760W 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 8(35) 4(39) 4(43) 1(44) 36 188N 760W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) 36 188N 760W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 48 196N 776W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 9(34) 6(40) 1(41) 48 196N 776W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) 48 196N 776W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 72 210N 800W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 10(37) 3(40) 72 210N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 72 210N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 225N 800W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 11(31) 5(36) 96 225N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 96 225N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 120 250N 785W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 6(26) 120 250N 785W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 120 250N 785W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 60 60 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN