000 FONT11 KNHC 032050 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) 1(27) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 27(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) BELIZE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 24(43) 8(51) 1(52) X(52) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 1 17(18) 36(54) 7(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) GUANAJA 50 X 3( 3) 25(28) 7(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GUANAJA 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 10 59(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 2 34(36) 1(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 1 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANDRES 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 145N 819W 34 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 145N 819W 50 66 16(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 12 145N 819W 64 40 16(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 24 149N 845W 34 2 73(75) 9(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 24 149N 845W 50 X 42(42) 11(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 24 149N 845W 64 X 22(22) 8(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 36 155N 866W 34 X 14(14) 40(54) 13(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) 36 155N 866W 50 X 3( 3) 25(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) 1(41) 36 155N 866W 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 48 162N 888W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 26(43) 9(52) X(52) X(52) 48 162N 888W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) 48 162N 888W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 72 176N 925W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) 1(24) 72 176N 925W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 176N 925W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 190N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) 96 190N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 190N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 205N 995W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 205N 995W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 205N 995W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 120 90 60 65 30 30 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH