000 FONT11 KNHC 031431 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 9(31) 2(33) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) 1(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) 16(16) 25(41) 13(54) 2(56) X(56) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 1(26) 1(27) BELIZE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 13(41) 1(42) 1(43) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 57(63) 8(71) 4(75) 1(76) X(76) GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 34(35) 9(44) 3(47) X(47) 1(48) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 43(44) 9(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 17(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BLUEFIELDS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 146N 804W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 146N 804W 50 69 14(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 12 146N 804W 64 40 16(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 24 151N 832W 34 2 79(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 24 151N 832W 50 X 54(54) 14(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 24 151N 832W 64 X 29(29) 14(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 36 158N 859W 34 X 8( 8) 56(64) 7(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) 36 158N 859W 50 X 2( 2) 38(40) 7(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) 36 158N 859W 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 48 163N 880W 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 20(44) 12(56) 1(57) 1(58) 48 163N 880W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) 48 163N 880W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) 72 175N 920W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 7(29) 1(30) 72 175N 920W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 72 175N 920W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 190N 955W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 3(22) 96 190N 955W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 96 190N 955W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 120 205N 990W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 120 205N 990W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 205N 990W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 150 145 90 90 50 60 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH