000 FONT11 KNHC 022359 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0000 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) 5(38) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 10(35) 2(37) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 14(50) 1(51) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) X(28) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 1(28) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 31(54) 4(58) 1(59) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 3(37) X(37) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 9(40) 1(41) X(41) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 2(18) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 6(22) X(22) 1(23) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 141N 745W 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 141N 745W 50 76 12(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 12 141N 745W 64 41 13(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 24 148N 780W 34 1 83(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 24 148N 780W 50 X 55(55) 15(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 24 148N 780W 64 X 24(24) 15(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 36 154N 811W 34 X 6( 6) 63(69) 12(81) 2(83) 1(84) X(84) 36 154N 811W 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 13(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) 36 154N 811W 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 11(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37) 48 160N 835W 34 X X( X) 23(23) 36(59) 13(72) 1(73) 1(74) 48 160N 835W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 13(49) 1(50) X(50) 48 160N 835W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 10(28) 1(29) X(29) 72 173N 877W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 12(54) 1(55) 72 173N 877W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 7(30) 1(31) 72 173N 877W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) 96 195N 915W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 5(35) 96 195N 915W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) 96 195N 915W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 120 215N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 120 215N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 120 215N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 150 145 145 145 135 80 90 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN