000 FONT11 KNHC 020846 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 2(26) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 2(30) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 17(43) 2(45) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 2(24) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) 1(30) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 8(54) 1(55) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) 1(31) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) X(19) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 19(41) 3(44) X(44) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) X(21) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 48 18(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PT GALLINAS 50 10 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PT GALLINAS 64 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CURACAO 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) CURACAO 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 132N 713W 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 132N 713W 50 53 20(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 12 132N 713W 64 36 13(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 24 139N 750W 34 2 76(78) 10(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 24 139N 750W 50 X 46(46) 16(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 24 139N 750W 64 X 21(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 36 146N 786W 34 X 4( 4) 59(63) 14(77) 1(78) 1(79) X(79) 36 146N 786W 50 X X( X) 40(40) 15(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) 36 146N 786W 64 X X( X) 19(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 48 153N 819W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 46(56) 14(70) 1(71) 1(72) 48 153N 819W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 13(45) 1(46) X(46) 48 153N 819W 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) 72 165N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 14(50) 1(51) 72 165N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 1(28) 72 165N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) 96 180N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 2(30) 96 180N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 96 180N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 120 200N 945W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 120 200N 945W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 120 200N 945W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95 105 115 125 120 70 70 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB