000 FONT11 KNHC 012043 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 12(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 7(32) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 9(33) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 19(37) 5(42) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) 1(28) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 2(18) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 1 22(23) 11(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PT GALLINAS 50 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 13 25(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CURACAO 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 2(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 6(34) 1(35) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) 1(31) X(31) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 6(36) 1(37) X(37) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 131N 679W 34 89 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 12 131N 679W 50 55 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 12 131N 679W 64 13 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 24 138N 714W 34 3 69(72) 10(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 24 138N 714W 50 X 40(40) 14(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 24 138N 714W 64 X 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 36 145N 748W 34 X 6( 6) 51(57) 15(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) 36 145N 748W 50 X X( X) 33(33) 11(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) 36 145N 748W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) 1(20) 48 152N 782W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 40(49) 15(64) 2(66) X(66) 48 152N 782W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) X(38) 1(39) 48 152N 782W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) 72 163N 835W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 13(51) 2(53) 72 163N 835W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) 1(29) 72 163N 835W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 96 175N 880W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 9(35) 96 175N 880W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 96 175N 880W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 120 195N 920W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 120 195N 920W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 120 195N 920W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70 75 80 90 100 110 65 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA