000 FONT11 KNHC 100232 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 0300 UTC THU MAY 10 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 304N 800W 34 41 10(51) 2(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 12 304N 800W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 304N 800W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 300N 802W 34 17 13(30) 4(34) 6(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) 24 300N 802W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 300N 802W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 295N 805W 34 4 12(16) 6(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 36 295N 805W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 295N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 295N 805W 34 4 12(16) 6(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 48 295N 805W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 295N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 295N 805W 34 4 12(16) 6(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 72 295N 805W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 295N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 30 25 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA