000 FZNT25 KNHC 080317 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 1017 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.6N 87.1W at 08/0300 UTC or 240 nm NE of Progreso Mexico, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west- northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Rafael will move to 24.7N 88.4W Fri morning, 24.8N 89.9W Fri evening, 25.1N 91.1W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 25.2N 91.9W Sat evening, 25.3N 92.4W Sun morning, and 24.9N 92.7W Sun evening. Rafael will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.7N 93.1W late Mon. Some small intensity fluctuations are possible tonight and Friday. Weakening is forecast to begin on Friday night and continue through the weekend. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS. E to SE winds 75 to 85 kt, diminishing to 50 to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less. .FRI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E to SE winds 30 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .FRI NIGHT...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .SAT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SUN...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .MON...NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. .TUE...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...The pressure gradient between ridging centered off the coast of the southeastern United States and a trough located north of the Virgin Islands will continue to support widespread fresh to locally strong E to NE winds north of the Greater Antilles through Fri morning. Rough to locally very rough seas in the aforementioned area will continue into Fri before slowly subsiding by Fri night. The trough to the north of the Virgin Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. There is a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and the next seven days. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will progress into the forecast waters on Sat, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas in N swell north of the Greater Antilles through this weekend. .TONIGHT...E winds 20 to 25 kt S of 27N, and E to SE 15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI...E winds 15 to 20 kt S of 27N, and E 10 to 15 kt N of 27N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .SUN...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E to SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. .MON...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .TUE...SE to S winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to NE 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.