000 FZNT25 KNHC 042104 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 404 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is near 15.5N 76.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Rafael will move to 16.8N 77.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 79.1W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.1N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 23.6N 83.8W Thu morning, and 24.7N 85.0W Thu afternoon. Rafael will change little in intensity as it northward through the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the southeastern U.S. The pressure gradient between this ridge and troughs over Mexico and the northwest Caribbean are supporting fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TONIGHT...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers. .TUE...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .TUE NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. .WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered tstms. .WED NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NE to E winds 50 to 55 kt, becoming E 65 to 75 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .THU NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .FRI...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. .SAT...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Rafael is near 15.5N 76.7W at 4 PM EST, and is moving north at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Rafael will move to 16.8N 77.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.5N 79.1W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 80.8W Wed morning, 22.1N 82.4W Wed afternoon, 23.6N 83.8W Thu morning, and 24.7N 85.0W Thu afternoon. Rafael will change little in intensity as it northward through the Gulf of Mexico Fri. Otherwise, a trough extends from Hispaniola to 26N63W. The pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting strong to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas across the waters northwest of the trough. The trough will shift westward today, as building high pressure north of the area follows a cold front moving across the western Atlantic before becoming stationary and weakening along 22N by Wed. .TONIGHT...E winds 20 to 25 kt S of 27N, and E 25 to 30 kt N of 27N. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .TUE...E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .TUE NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E to SE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .WED NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E to SE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. .THU...E to SE winds 25 to 30 kt S of 27N, and E to SE 20 to 25 kt N of 27N. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .THU NIGHT...E to SE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .FRI...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. .SAT...NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.