000 FZNT25 KNHC 141544 OFFN04 NAVTEX Marine Forecast NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL 1144 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Please refer to Coastal Waters Forecasts (CWF) available through NOAA Weather Radio and other means for detailed Coastal Waters Forecasts... Southeast Gulf of Mexico .SYNOPSIS...A weak surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across most of the basin into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the weekend. .THIS AFTERNOON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .TONIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...Straits of Florida, E winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Elsewhere, NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .FRI...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in SE swell. .FRI NIGHT...NE to E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. .SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E to SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. .SUN...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in SE swell. .SUN NIGHT...Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in SE swell. Within 200 nm east of the coast of Florida .SYNOPSIS...A broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to central Florida, and will shift E and weaken through Thu. Recently upgraded Hurricane Ernesto is near 20.5N 67.6W, or about 150 nm NW of San Juan, Puerto Rico at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Ernesto will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 22.3N 68.7W this evening. It is expected to turn toward the north- northwest tonight reaching to near 24.5N 69.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. A general northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected afterward, reaching to near 26.6N 68.6W Thu evening, to near 28.5N 67.2W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 30.4N 66.1W Fri evening and to near Bermuda Sat morning. A weak frontal boundary will drop southward across the northwestern part of the area beginning late Wed, and stall to the NW of Ernesto by Fri, producing moderate to fresh NE winds behind it. Large swell from Ernesto will spread W of 75W early Fri through Sat morning. .THIS AFTERNOON...E to SE winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and W 5 to 10 kt N of 27N. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. .TONIGHT...E winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and NE to E 10 to 15 kt N of 27N. Seas 2 to 3 ft S of 27N, and 3 to 4 ft N of 27N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU...S of 27N, SE to S winds less than 5 kt, shifting to NW in the afternoon. N of 27N, N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .THU NIGHT...N winds 5 to 10 kt S of 27N, and N to NE 15 to 20 kt N of 27N. Seas 5 to 7 ft in E to SE swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. .FRI...N to NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. .SAT...N to NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in NE to E swell. .SAT NIGHT...NE to E winds 5 to 10 kt, shifting to SE to S after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SUN...SE to S winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell. .SUN NIGHT...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft in NE to E swell.