000 AGXX40 KNHC 180738 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 238 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the western Gulf near 26N95W. A weak and dry cold front will quickly move across the eastern Gulf this afternoon and evening. In its wake, the high pressure over the western Gulf will shift east-northeast to the NE Gulf by Wed. Fresh to strong southeast return flow to become established off the Texas coast by mid-week before weakening some Thu and Thu night. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the far western Gulf Fri night followed by strong north winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A frontal trough from near the Windward Passage to across Jamaica and to just east of central Nicaragua will slowly dissipate through late Tue. Fresh to strong north winds west of the trough within about 120 nm east of the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to mainly fresh winds this afternoon. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 67W will weaken through Wed as it moves across the eastern part of the central Caribbean. Low pressure of 1008 mb is analyzed over the Tropical N Atlantic waters near 19N55W, or roughly about 450 miles to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A trough extends northeastward from the low to near 23N54W and southwestward to near 15N59W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are located to east and southeast of this system. A large area of strong east-southeast winds is found on the northeast quadrant of the low pressure along with wave heights of 9-12 ft. The latest NHC outlook calls for some gradual development of this system to be expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The aforementioned strong winds and wave heights are forecast to begin to impact the forecast northeast Tropical N Atlantic waters (Zone AMZ127) tonight and through most of Tue night before these conditions lift north of these waters. Also, expect for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to move across those waters beginning early this evening. After the next couple of days, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not expected. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Low pressure of 994 mb north of the near 35N70W extends a cold front southward to 31N67W to 25N69W and to the Windward passage. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds today, while large wave heights north and northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside through Tue. The front will stall and weaken from roughly near Bermuda to near the northwest coast of Haiti late tonight through Tue. A couple of dry cold front will sweep across the area Mon through Wed. The second of these will be followed by strong west to northwest winds across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas late Tue into early Wed. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the area late Wed through early on Thu before exiting those waters late Thu afternoon as high pressure builds in across the area through the end of the week. Swell left behind by the second front will combine with a large set of northeast swell over northeast part of the area and eastern half of the central waters north of 27N during Wed before shifting northeastward to the far northeastern waters on Thu and to northeast of the forecast waters on Fri. Wave heights with these winds are expected to peak to around 10 ft late Wed and on Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.