000 AGXX40 KNHC 261713 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extending from the northwest Yucatan Peninsula to near 27N94W will move slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico Sat. Elsewhere, relatively weak high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will be reinforced by stronger high pressure that builds south-southwestward from the western Atlantic Fri through early next week. The resultant gradient will increase winds to fresh speeds over the NE Gulf beginning late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A weak pressure pattern allowing for generally light and variable winds and low seas will be replaced by somewhat stronger high pressure that builds southward over the western Atlantic beginning on Fri. This will lead to trades increasing over much of the central and western Caribbean through early next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlc on Fri, then through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend, reaching the western Caribbean early next week. Swells from Hurricane Lorenzo which will east of the region will propagate through the tropical N Atlc and eastern Caribbean passages this weekend into early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Karen near 26.6N 63.3W 1004 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt. Karen will maintain intensity as it moves to near 27.6N 62.5W this evening, then weaken slightly early on Fri near 28.1N 61.1W, reach to near 28.0N 60.4W Fri evening, then weaken to a tropical depression near 27.8N 60.6W Sat morning and reach to near 27.6N 61.9W Sat evening. Karen is forecast to become a remnant low and move to near 27.3N 63.5W Sun morning. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.1N 66.5W early on Mon, and continue to near 27.0N 69.0W early on Tue. Meanwhile, high pressure will build down from off the eastern seaboard to the Bahamas this weekend and into early next week tightening the pressure gradient. Winds and seas will increase and build by the end of the weekend into early next week as a result. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.