000 AGXX40 KNHC 241916 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 316 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh northeast to east winds from the Straits of Florida to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula will diminish to mainly moderate speeds this afternoon over the Straits of Florida as a weaker pressure gradient between east to west ridging across the northern portion of the basin, and a surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula weakens. Weak low pressure may form along the trough while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast coast of Mexico late Fri or Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Karen near 17.6N 65.7W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, and to near 19.1N 65.4W this evening. Karen will gradually intensify as it reaches to near 21.3N 64.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 23.6N 64.1W Wed evening, to near 25.5N 63.4W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, and and to near 26.9N 62.6W Thu evening with little change in intensity. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the end of the week, moving through the eastern Caribbean Sat through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this wave. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Jerry near 30.8N 69.3W 991 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Jerry will weaken slightly as it moves to just north of the area near 31.7N 68.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt. Jerry will continue to weaken as it reaches to near 32.6N 66.7W early Wed with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt and reach to near 33.5N 64.2W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.2N 61.5W Thu morning, and become a remnant low and move to 35.0N 57.4W Fri morning. Tropical Storm Karen near 17.6N 65.7W 1007 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move over or near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon, and to near 19.1N 65.4W this evening. Karen will gradually intensify as it reaches to near 21.3N 64.9W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 23.6N 64.1W Wed evening, to near 25.5N 63.4W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts to 60 kt, to near 26.9N 62.6W Thu evening with little change in intensity and maintain intensity as it reaches near 27.8N 62.0W Fri morning. Karen will intensify slightly as it reaches to near 28.0N 62.5W early on Sat and to near 27.5N 65.0W early on Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Tropical Storm Warning today. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Wed. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Wed. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.