000 AGXX40 KNHC 240603 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh NE to E winds and seas to near 8 ft will continue through the Florida Straits to offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through the rest of the night/early morning with conditions gradually improving as a weaker pressure gradient between E to W ridging across the northern portion of the basin, and a surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula weakens. Weak low pressure may form along the trough while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the NE coast of Mexico late Fri or Sat. There is a low chance of tropical development of this low through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 16.3N 65.7W at 24/0600 UTC or 100 nm SSW of St. Croix moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Karen will strengthen to a tropical storm as it approaches Puerto Rico near 17.5N 66.2W later this morning, move to 19.6N 66.2W this evening, then lifting away from the area to near 22.0N 65.8W Wed morning, 23.9N 65.2W Wed evening, and 26.8N 64.1W Thu evening. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves farther to the N to near 28.0N 64.0W late Fri, and will shift W to near 28.0N 66.5W late Sat. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week. A tropical wave will reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the end of the week, moving through the eastern Caribbean for the start of the weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 29.5N 68.4W at 24/0600 UTC or 250 nm SW of Bermuda moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Jerry will move to 30.1N 68.5W later this morning, then N of the area to 31.2N 67.7W this evening, 32.4N 65.7W Wed morning, 33.3N 62.7W Wed evening, and continuing farther to the N away from the area to 34.9N 56.8W Thu evening. Tropical Depression Karen is centered near 16.3N 65.7W at 24/0600 UTC or 100 nm SSW of St. Croix moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Karen will strengthen to a tropical storm as it approaches Puerto Rico near 17.5N 66.2W later this morning, move to 19.6N 66.2W this evening, then near 22.0N 65.8W Wed morning, 23.9N 65.2W Wed evening, and 26.8N 64.1W Thu evening. Karen will change little in intensity as it moves to the N to near 28.0N 64.0W late Fri, and will shift W to near 28.0N 66.5W late Sat. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into tonight. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Wed into Wed night. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Wed. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.