000 AGXX40 KNHC 230648 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 248 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft will still be possible in and near the Straits of Florida through the early morning. These winds and seas will gradually improve as the pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower pressure associated with a dissipating stationary front across the Straits weakens. New high pressure will develop along the northern Gulf tonight, then will slowly lift N by the end of the week. Otherwise, a weak NW to SE trough will extend from the W central Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula through much of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 13.3N 63.6W at 23/0600 UTC or 140 nm W of St. Vincent moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Karen will move to 13.9N 64.5W later this morning, 15.3N 65.2W this evening, and 16.9N 65.8W Tue morning, 18.7N 66.0W Tue evening. Karen will move N of Puerto Rico and the basin by Wed morning, then continue moving N into late in the week, slowing in forward speed with time. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning by the end of the week as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of Karen. A tropical wave may reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the end of the week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 27.5N 67.5W at 23/0600 UTC or 320 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Jerry will move to 28.4N 67.7W later this morning, 29.8N 68.2W this evening, then N of the area to near 31.2N 68.4W Tue morning. Jerry will continue to move farther away from the area through the end of the week, and will pass near Bermuda on Thu. Little chance in strength is forecast as it passes to the N of the area. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 13.3N 63.6W at 23/0600 UTC or 140 nm W of St. Vincent moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Karen will move to 13.9N 64.5W later this morning, 15.3N 65.2W this evening, 16.9N 65.8W Tue morning, 18.7N 66.0W Tue evening. Karen will move north of Puerto Rico by Wed morning, then continue moving into the SW Atlantic late in the week, slowing in forward speed with time. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Tropical Storm Warning today into Tue. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .AMZ035...OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into Tue. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning Tue night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.