000 AGXX40 KNHC 201805 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the Carolinas will dominate the Gulf waters through Sun. The pressure gradient will tighten over the eastern Gulf through Sun morning, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas to 9 or 10 ft. ft. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf by early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Hurricane Jerry near 18.8N 60.3W 990 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Jerry will move to 19.6N 62.4W this evening, 20.9N 64.7W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 66.6W Sat evening, 23.6N 68.0W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 69.0W Mon morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.0N 67.5W early Tue, and continue to near 33.0N 64.0W Wed. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. Looking ahead, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Hurricane Jerry near 18.8N 60.3W 990 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Jerry will move to 19.6N 62.4W this evening, 20.9N 64.7W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 66.6W Sat evening, 23.6N 68.0W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 69.0W Mon morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to near 29.0N 67.5W early Tue, and continue to near 33.0N 64.0W Wed. Meanwhile, large swell generated by Humberto, now as an extratropical cyclone located well N of the area will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Sat into Sun. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning Sat. Tropical Storm Warning Sat night. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Hurricane Warning today into Sat. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.