000 AGXX40 KNHC 151827 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 227 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time. Weak high pressure will build over the Gulf through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin. A tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean today will reach the central Caribbean on Mon. Another tropical wave will approach Barbados late today, move across the eastern Caribbean Mon, and into the central Caribbean through mid week, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and building seas. Northerly swell will reach the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean Sea late on Mon. Looking ahead, a small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Humberto near 28.9N 77.9W 997 mb at 11 AM EDT moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Humberto will strengthen to a hurricane near 29.5N 77.7W this evening, move to 30.0N 77.1W Mon morning, 30.3N 75.9W Mon evening, 30.7N 74.4W Tue morning, and 31.6N 69.6W Wed morning. Humberto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 34.5N 62.8W early Thu, and continue to near 39.0N 57.0W Fri. The center of Humberto will continue to move away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of Florida through Wednesday. Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Northerly swell will reach the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean Sea late on Mon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Mon. Tropical Storm Warning Mon night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.