000 AGXX40 KNHC 051951 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 251 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 18Z this afternoon, the previous cold front has become stationary along a position from near Fort Myers to 24N87W, to 23N92W, to 21N94W and to the Bay of Campeche reaching the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A trough is east of the front from 20N93W to just inland the coast of Mexico at 18N93W, while another trough is analyzed west of the front from near 21N94W to 21.5N97W. The synoptic analysis from 18Z has a strong arctic high pressure system building south-southeastward over the Gulf behind the front. The Ascat data from this morning revealed a large swath of near gale force to minimal gale force winds over the extreme western part of the Gulf from about 21N to 26N and west of 96W and near gale force northwest to north winds south of 21N west of 95W. It also indicated north to northeast winds in the 20-25 kt range elsewhere north of the front to near 27N as a very tight pressure gradient has developed between the high pressure and the front. The gale force winds from 22N to 26N have recently diminished to near gale force, while minimal gale force northwest to north are expected to begin soon in the far SW Gulf south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range, except for higher seas of 8-13 ft in the western Gulf south of about 26N. The highest values of these seas are located south of about 22N and west of 95W. The forecast calls for the stationary front to begin to move to the southeast as a cold front again this evening and tonight as the strong aforementioned high pressure continues to surge east-southeast over the eastern Gulf waters. The front will then exit the far SE forecast waters late tonight into early Wed. The high pressure will continue to build across the region in the wake of the front through Thu. The strong northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish through late Wed night. The minimal gale force northwest to north winds in the SW Gulf will diminish to strong winds late tonight into early Wed. The high pressure over the area will shift to east of the region by late Fri night, with fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the western and central waters through Sat, then diminishing Sat night as the next cold front approaches eastern Texas. This front may possibly move over the NW and central Gulf Sun and Sun night while it slows down and become stationary as depicted by most of the global models. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to locally strong northeast to east trade winds will remain across the south central Caribbean Sea through Wed. Easterly swell will continue across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed. A cold front will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Wed followed by strong northeast winds and seas of 8-9 ft. It will become stationary from the Windward passage to eastern Honduras on Thu, then weaken on Thu night. Winds over the northwestern Caribbean will diminish to fresh winds on Thu and seas will lower to less than 8 ft. With tight pressure gradient developing from strong high pressure that builds in the wake over the front and while low pressure is present over northwestern Colombia, expect for gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours from Thu through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from near 31N73W to NW Bahamas and to South Florida as of 18Z. The front will begin to move southeast again as a cold front beginning this evening and tonight as strong arctic high pressure from the eastern United States begins to build over the area behind the front. Strong winds are expected both east and west of the front north of about 29N tonight and north of 27N by early Wed as the front reaches from near 31N66W to 26N74W and to eastern Cuba. The front will become stationary from near 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Thu. The front will then weaken and dissipate by late Fri night as high pressure behind it shifts eastward through Sun night. Return southerly flow of mainly fresh winds along with building seas will set up over the northwest part of the area on Sun as the next cold front moves across the southeastern United States. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W... Gale Warning through late tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF COLOMBIA at night through Sun. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.