000 AGXX40 KNHC 011917 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 217 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... The earlier weak cold front across the NW Gulf has become stationary from southeastern Louisiana to 28N94W and to inland northeastern Texas just south of Brownsville, Texas as of 18Z this afternoon. High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf waters. Present surface observations and satellite imagery show a good amount of low stratus/fog and light drizzle over the waters west of the front, where a shallow cold air mass exists. Both radar and satellite imagery are depicting scattered showers and thunderstorms in lines well ahead of the cold front extending from the NE Gulf northeastward to over the Florida panhandle, primarily east of about 85W. This activity is attributed to a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward through a very warm and humid air mass. The trough extends along a position from eastern Mississippi to 25N90W and to the western Yucatan Peninsula. The shortwave trough will push through the remainder of the Gulf through tonight. The stationary front may drift some eastward through early Sat, while its western segment transitions to a warm front across the NW Gulf and to central Texas. The stationary front will dissipate Sat afternoon and the warm front will lift to inland Texas and Louisiana Sat evening. Expect for fog and stratus and along the Texas coastal Texas to slowly dissipate during the afternoon. Models are depicting a rather strong cold front will move off the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts early on Sun evening, quickly reach from near Apalachicola to near 27N92W and to Brownsville late Sun night, from near Tampa to 25N90W and to the SW Gulf by early Mon afternoon, from near the Florida Keys to near 22N90W and to the south-central Bay of Campeche by Tue afternoon and to southeast of the Gulf waters over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Wed. A trough will hang back over the SW and western Gulf waters on Wed, roughly along a position from near 26N97W to 23N96W and to near 19N93W. Strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow in behind this front, with gale conditions possible over a section of the SW Gulf W of the front Tue night into Wed morning. By Tue, strong north to northeast winds are expected to cover just about the entire basin as strong high pressure centered north of the area ushers in a cold artic air mass over the region. As the high pressure shifts eastward through Wed night and weakens some, the strong winds will gradually shift southward to south of about 27N. Seas of 8-11 ft are expected to linger in the SW Gulf and in portions of the eastern Bay of Campeche and far western Gulf on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean through Tue. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Long period northerly swell will propagate through tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages through Sat. E swell will move into the tropical Atlantic waters Sun night through Tue night and subside Wed. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A trough extending from 31N65W to 27N72W will dissipate this evening. Long period northerly swell will propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W through Sat. A strong cold front will move off the southeast United States coast early on Mon, reach from near 31N75W to Vero Beach, Florida early on Mon evening, from near 31N68W to along northern Cuba by late on Tue, and from near 31N67W to 25N73W and to east-central Cuba on Wed. Strong southwest winds will precede the front over the northern waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of this front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE S OF 20N W OF 95W Tue night into Wed morning. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.