000 AGXX40 KNHC 150806 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 306 AM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf through Tampico Mexico. This is supporting generally light breezes across the Gulf, except for moderate southerly flow over the northwest Gulf. Seas are 2 ft or less under the high pressure in the northeast Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No significant showers, thunderstorms or fog conditions are observed at this time. The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Sun, maintaining moderate SE return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Sun night as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf through Mon. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tue morning, then lift northward across the northern Gulf by late Tue as the low moves inland over northeast Mexico and dissipates. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A sharp upper trough reaches from central Cuba to eastern Honduras. This is supporting weak 1013 mb high pressure between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island, on the southern end of a weakening frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer pass and buoy observations indicate gentle breezes over the northwest Caribbean and moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Caribbean. NE to E swell of 6 to 8 ft is observed over Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands to 55W. The surface low pressure will dissipate this morning as the upper trough shifts east, leaving a remnant trough persisting through late today. Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Tue night, with brief gale conditions possible off Colombia Sun night and Mon night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands will subside through Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A sharp upper trough extends north to south along roughly 75W through central Cuba. Divergent flow aloft on the eastern side of the trough is supporting showers and a few thunderstorms from the central and southern Bahamas, with a large cluster of thunderstorms active south of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A stationary front extends from 30N65W to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 27N73W to another 1012 mb low pressure near 23N77W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds north of the between 65W and 72W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft north of 28N, although possibly reaching as high as 9 ft in the area of strong winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 28N outside of the Bahamas. The low pressure centers will merge then move north of the area through tonight along the weakening front. The front will weaken to a trough Sat, which will shift E of the area Sun ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The front will stall along 29N east of 75W into Tue, then lift northward Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist into early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.